Both if the CBOE future expired and after this, when the CME bitcoin future is on its way settlement, there were a substantial decrease in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a good low volume i would guess that these are dominated by one single liquidity provider\/market maker. Forex maker is most likely short the near future and perhaps long the spot. At expiry, they’ll profit in the event the cost is low this will let you border after settlement if the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen an extremely bad settlement processes which are an easy task to manipulate. For CBOE it’s the auction price for Gemini – a young with a very small volume more often than not.
CME’s model is best, however of low quality, VWAP for the four major exchanges is a great idea, but when that VWAP is calculated on one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the volume on a real brief time span is extremely limited. Even if many large participants could have interests in almost any of the settlement processes they’d probably have the identical position and gains advantage from exactly the same side in the market manipulation. The VWAP have to have been calculated over hrs instead). The conclusion is that we likely will see a lots of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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